The majority of our businesses will report lower earnings this year than last year,” Buffett cautioned at Berkshire’s 2023 annual meeting (1). That was a somewhat surprising statement from a man who has famously been ultra-bullish on the U.

The enduring strength of consumer spending, which powers two-thirds of America’s economic output, has been the main reason that the United States has evaded a recession through successive drubbings over five years: roaring inflation, a rapid run-up in interest rates and a barrage of tariffs.

Another decent ISM activity print is consistent with the US economy growing at a 2.5% annual pace in 2026. The concern is that the jobs component dropped sharply in March and prices paid jumped, suggesting growing business caution in the wake of heightened economic and market angst tied to the conflict in the Middle East.

The latest U.S. jobs report delivered a headline surprise, but some economists say the strength is overstated. March payrolls rose by 178,000, more than double expectations, yet much of that gain came from temporary factors.

TS Lombard sees either a recession, an inflation surge, or an economic re-acceleration coming from the Middle East supply chain damage.

Weaker growth and higher inflation expected

Oil prices are once again surging in the wake of war in the Middle East, driving up the cost of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. But the U.S. and world economies are less vulnerable now tha

Today, home building slowed in May and Federal Reserve officials will continue to analyze incoming economic data.